Trump Wins Super Tuesday, Shows Vulnerability

The Results

Business Mogul Donald Trump was able to win contests in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Governor John Kasich nearly won Vermont while Senator Ted Cruz nearly one Arkansas, it was still an overwhelming night for Donald Trump. However, his recent debate performance and David Duke gaffe may have hurt him.

Senator Cruz was able to win his home state of Texas – to no surprise to anyone. His victories in Alaska and Oklahoma were aided by the negative coverage of the Trump campaign over the past week. Remarkably, this phenomenon first showed up in South Carolina which turned a projected 20% point victory into a 10% point victory, yet these are the first elections where Trump’s antics may have cost him victories.

Senator Marco Rubio was able to obtain a much needed victory in Minnesota – aiding his disappointing run towards the nomination. The establishment of the Republican party will make sure Senator Rubio stays in the race in their struggle to wrestle the nomination from Donald Trump, even if Rubio’s chances for the nomination are nearly non-existent.

Does This Change The Race

It would still take a cataclysmic event for Trump to not win the Republican nomination. Despite his losing a 12% point lead in Oklahoma that is not enough of a shift to stop Trump’s momentum nationally. Senator Cruz being the beneficiary of the change in Oklahoma also bring further complications. The establishment of the GOP will not rally around Cruz in their

quest to unseat Donald Trump – Cruz is despised by nearly everyone in the Republican party.

The best the establishment can hope for is Senator Rubio or Governor Kasich to start an unlikely winning streak – which is extremely unexpected by an objective look at the data.

Individuals such as former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, South Carolina Governor Haley, and House Speaker Paul Ryan will continue to attack Trump. With the anti-establishment movement within the Republican base, their attacks are doubtful to cause any significant damage to Trump’s poll numbers.

Trump Is His Own Worst Enemy

If Trump is going to lose the nomination it will be his own doing. It will take further poor debate performances, massive gaffes on the campaign trail, and associating himself with individuals that further damage his reputation.

Even if Trump further damages himself there isn’t any guarantee that it will cost him enough elections to keep him from the Republican nomination for President. He previously retweeted messages from White Supremacists groups on Twitter without harming his national standing. While his utter refusal to distance himself from the Ku Klux Klan may have hurt him briefly, empirical evidence shows he will be able to withstand the criticism.

Him becoming the Republican nominee almost seems guaranteed at this point, Trump has survived mistakes that would have ended many politicians careers.

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